ANALYSIS: Roughly half of all cardinal-electors are currently in Rome, making the Synod on Synodality something of a prelude to a future conclave.

VATICAN CITY — The purpose of this month’s Synod on Synodality is to determine how to put Pope Francis’ push for greater dialogue, openness and lay participation in Church affairs into action. But the worldwide gathering is also doubling as something of a prelude to the next papal conclave.

Sixty-one cardinals are among the synod’s voting members, meaning there’s a good chance that 87-year-old Pope Francis’ successor is here, right now, at the synodal session.

And so are a significant number of the men likely to elect him — whoever he may be.

While a handful of the cardinal-participants, like Boston’s emeritus archbishop, Cardinal Seán O’Malley, cannot vote in a future conclave due to passing the 80-year-old threshold, the group still includes nearly half of the 122 cardinal-electorscurrently eligible to vote for a new pope. That makes the monthlong gathering prime time for papabili — or potential popes — to put their best foot forward.

A Rare Opportunity

The high likelihood that the next pope is here in Rome for the synod isn’t just due to numbers. It’s also a product of what the Synod on Synodality is, how its participants were chosen, and also how Pope Francis has shaken up typical pre-conclave dynamics.

While some cardinals at the synod were selected by their respective bishops’ conference, many are here because they already lead important Vatican offices or are standing members of the Synod of Bishops. Others were personally selected by Pope Francis, suggesting some degree of additional clout.

In other words, the red hats at the synod stand out among the crowd of the already highly distinguished College of Cardinals.

Furthermore, the Synod on Synodality is a highly significant — and fairly controversial — ecclesial event, with enormous implications for the future of the universal Catholic Church. It’s quite possible that the chief question among the cardinal-electors at a future conclave is how the next pope will — or won’t — carry forward Pope Francis’ signature initiative. With that in mind, what cardinals do or don’t say during the synod will carry an added layer of meaning.

Finally, it’s well documented that while Pope Francis has expanded the geographic makeup of the College of Cardinals, he has also limited the number of opportunities its members have had to get together, exchange ideas, and get to know each other — all important pre-conclave elements. That makes this month’s assembly perhaps the best opportunity yet for a papal candidate to make himself — and his vision for the Church — known among a significant number of his red-hatted brethren.

Papabili at the Synod?

Included among the synod’s delegates are frequently touted papabili like Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state for the past 10 years. The career diplomat has placed himself above much of the turbulence that has marked Francis’ pontificate, though his connection to the Vatican’s controversial China deal on the appointment of bishops may be a mark against him for some. A report from last year’s sessionsuggested that Cardinal Parolin positioned himself as a moderate during the synod in a way that could boost his conclave prospects.

Another Italian synod-participant to keep tabs on is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Italy. Although the traditionalist-friendly progressive has downplayed papabili rumors before, he has some serious factors in his favor. A longtime associate of the influential Sant’Egidio Community, Cardinal Zuppi has served as Pope Francis’ personal peace envoy and is president of the bishops’ conference of Italy — which still has 13 current electors, by far the most of any country.

Of course, any discussion of a potential successor to Pope Francis should include the man once dubbed “Asian Francis” — Cardinal Luis Tagle. The charismatic Filipino and Vatican’s evangelization office pro-prefect’s star was apparently dimmed when Pope Francis removed him from leadership of Caritas International in 2022. But the Pope has since tapped him for roles like papal envoy to the U.S. National Eucharistic Congress, which some papal watchers saw as a chance for Cardinal Tagle to “reframe impressions.” The synod is likely another one.

Meanwhile, perhaps no one’s papal prospects have been boosted more over the past year than those of Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo. The Congolese cardinal rose to global prominence — and conclave predictor’s attention — last December after leading Africa’s collective response to Fiducia Supplicans, which earned kudos from other bishops around the world. A member of Pope Francis’ cardinal advisers, Cardinal Ambongo’s leaked remarks about the decadent and dying West may have rubbed some prelates from Europe and North America the wrong way, but the synod may be a chance to smooth things over — or consolidate support among non-Western cardinals.

A different sort of prospect from Africa is Spanish Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, whose leadership of Morocco’s Archdiocese of Rabat make him an intriguing multicultural possibility. Another Spanish speaker worth watching is the primate of Mexico, Cardinal Carlos Aguiar Retes, the former president of CELAM, the episcopal conference of Latin America. The same can be said of Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Sturla Berhouet, a friend of Pope Francis who nonetheless distanced himself from the Vatican’s same-sex blessing document last December. In neighboring Brazil, Cardinal Sérgio da Rocha has been a major player in CELAM and is a cardinal adviser to the Pope, though his reputation as a supporter of LGBTQ advocacymay limit his appeal.

If the College of Cardinals senses that the next pope should instead come from the East, Cardinal Lazarus You Heung-Sik, the South Korean prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy, and Cardinal Charles Maung Bo of Myanmar, the former head of the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences, are two Asian prelates who will be under careful consideration at the synod.

Meanwhile, a trio of recently installed Vatican Curia heads could also use the October gathering to make their views for the universal Church more widely known among their fellow electors: Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti, an Italian who heads the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches; Dicastery for Culture and Education prefect, Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça of Portugal; and the U.S. Cardinal Robert Prevost, who is not only prefect of the Dicastery for the Clergy, but leads the Pontifical Commission for Latin America.

Two figures’ papal prospects are even more directly tied to the synod than all the rest: Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, the general secretary of the Synod of Bishops, and Luxembourgish Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich, the general relator of the Synod on Synodality. The two have had a major influence on the agenda and process of the synod — which will either be a major asset or a disqualifying liability in a future conclave, depending on how cardinal-electors view the whole affair.

Of course, not every possible pope is here in Rome. Two top names, Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, and the conservative-lauded Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, were never delegates to the Synod of Bishops, while Singaporean Cardinal William Goh is not partaking in this session after having been a synod delegate last October.

Even so, enough papabili are in Rome this month to make conclave implications an intriguing Synod on Synodality subtext — and, in fact, the topic could dominate among Vatican watchers if the impression that the synod won’t lead to dramatic changes continues to grow.

This article was originally published on National Catholic Register.